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- Composite Indexes of Economic Cyclical Indicators: 1978 - 1989 Item Unit 1978 1980 1985 1988 1989
-
- Leading Indicators**
- Composite index(1) 1982=100 145.8 99.2 124.0 142.8 144.9
- Building permits(2) 1967=100 145.4 96.7 138.1 115.8 107.6
- Common stock prices,
- index(3) 1941-43=10 96.0 118.8 186.8 265.8 322.8
- Initial claims,
- unemployment
- insurance 1,000 338 480 383 305 324
- Change in sensitive
- prices(4,5) Percent 1.0 .4 -.8 .4 .1
- Vendor performance,
- slower deliveries Percent 64 41 48 58 48
- Average workweek,
- manufacturing(6) Hours 40.4 39.7 40.5 41.1 41.0
- Plant & equipment
- contracts & orders
- (1982 $) Bil.dol. 381 361 410 537 578
- New orders,
- manufacturing,
- consumer goods
- & materials
- (1982 $) Bil.dol. 1,024 891 955 1,046 1,054
- Money supply(1982) Bil.dol. 1,982 1,835 2,224 2,460 2,435
- Consumer expectations
- index(7) 1966=100 52.8 56.8 86.5 85.2 85.2
-
-
- Coincident Indicators
- Composite index 1982=100 144.0 107.2 116.0 128.2 132.9
- Industrial
- production index 1977=100 106.5 108.6 123.7 105.4 108.1
- Employees,
- nonagricultural
- payrolls Million 86.7 90.4 97.5 105.6 108.6
- Personal income less
- transfer payments
- (1982 dol.) Bil.dol. 2,191 2,233 2,540 2,795 2,919
- Sales, manufacturing
- & trade(1982 dol.) Bil.dol. 4,327 4,341 4,863 5,420 5,517
-
-
- Lagging Indicators
- Composite index 1982=100 114.0 105.5 107.7 114.9 119.8
- Change in labor
- cost per unit
- of output,
- manufacturing(4) Percent 9.2 10.5 2.0 2.3 3.1
- Ratio, consumer
- installment
- credit to
- personal income Percent 13.4 13.3 14.5 15.7 15.8
- Average prime rate
- charged by banks Percent 9.1 15.3 9.9 9.3 10.9
- Average duration of
- unemployment Weeks 11.9 11.9 15.6 13.5 11.9
- Ratio, inventories
- to sales,
- manufacturing &
- trade(1982 dol.) Ratio 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5
- Commercial &
- industrial loans
- outstanding(1982
- dol.)(8) Bil.dol. 207 225 329 364 389
-
-
- **Leading indicators:economic time series that tend to reach
- their cyclical high and low points earlier than the
- corresponding peaks and troughs in the overall economy.
- Coincident indicators:economic time series that tend to reach
- their cyclical high and low points about the same time as the
- corresponding peaks and troughs in the overall economy. Lagging
- indicators:economic time series that tend to reach their
- cyclical high and low points later than the corresponding peaks
- and troughs in the overall economy.
- 1. Beginning with data for Jan. 1984, net business formation
- has been suspended from this index.
- 2. New private housing units authorized.
- 3. Standard & Poor, 500 stocks.
- 4. Producer price index of selected crude and intermediate
- materials and spot market price index of raw industrial
- materials.
- 5. Weighted 4-term moving average placed at the terminal month
- of the span.
- 6. Business and consumer borrowing.
- 7. Production workers.
- 8. Actual data as percent of trend.
-
- Source:U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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